SENATE PRESIDENCY: Lawan vs Saraki: How Senators-elect may vote

*Saraki, 59 votes; Lawan 45; 4 undecided; 1 dead =109 After weeks of horse-trading and political permutations, the leadership of the All Progressives Congress seems to have jettisoned the purported zoning of the Senate Presidency and in the light of this, the contest is now literally open to all interested candidates. Also, with two major contenders, Ahmed Lawan (Yobe North) and George Akume (Benue West) joining forces against Senator Bukola Saraki (Kwara Central), the battle is set between Saraki and Lawan. In this piece, TOPE SUNDAY, PETER MOSES and MUMINI ABDULKAREEM, look at the possible voting pattern of the senators-elect when the 8th National Assembly is convened on June 6 and who may likely emerge between Saraki, who is currently enjoying support of 35 out of 60 APC Senators-elect as well as appreciable number of PDP Senators, and Lawan who is riding on Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu's backing and the current Senate President, David Mark.

North East Gombe State: The state is believed to be controlled politically by Senator Danjuma Goje, from Gombe Central, who is a two-term governor like Dr. Bukola Saraki. Long time relationship between Saraki and Goje during the former's term as Chairman of Nigerian Governors' Forum, is expected to work for him (Saraki). This coupled with the open endorsement done by Goje in Saraki's favour. Senator Goje alongside other 11 Senators-elect from the North East Geo-political zone had once addressed a press briefing to deny their purported endorsement of Senator Lawan as their candidate from the zone. Also, Hon. Bayero Nafada, APC Gombe North, and Joshua Lidani (APC Gombe South) who are Senator Goje's political sons are expected to follow the footstep of their leader. Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 Bauchi: If long time relationship with one time Senate Leader, late Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki when he was Chairman of the Northern Forum, had with Bauchi State opens doors, Senator Saraki may sweep the three votes of Isah Hamma Misau (Bauchi Central); Suleiman Nazif (Bauchi North), and Ali Wakili (Bauchi South), all on the platform of APC. Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 Taraba: The political leader of the state is General Theophilous Danjuma, who is seen as a good confidant of President Goodluck Jonathan and a die-hard member of the PDP. Though, the party had not officially taken position on who to support, its stalwarts like the incumbent Senate President, David Mark and God'swill Akpabio had reportedly queued behind Senator Lawan and Senator Saraki in that order. In view of this, the three senators elected on the platform of the party; Bashir Marafa, (Taraba Central PDP), Abubakar Sani Danladi (North) and Emmanuel Bwacha (South) may vote for Lawan, who is reportedly being backed by Senator Mark because of the cordial relationship between Danjuma and Mark. Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan, 3 Yobe: Senator Lawan hails from this state and coupled with the official endorsement by the state government and the immediate past governor of the state, Senator Bukar Abba Ibrahim (Yobe East), who is the APC state's political leader; Senator Lawan may win the state. Also, the third senator from the state, Mohammed Hasan (Yobe South) was elected on the platform of the PDP, is also likely to vote in Lawan's favour based on' sentiment. Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan, 3 Borno: Based on the reported alliance between Senator Saraki and Senator Ali Ndume (South), which alleges that if the seat is zoned to the North-East, the former would support the latter and if zoned to the North-Central, vice-versa; Saraki is expected to secure one vote from the state in person of Ndume. Late Senator Ahmad Zannah (APC Borno Central) would have also voted for him, (Saraki) if he were to be alive but he died recently. The other Senator, Abubakar Kyari (APC Borno North), who is said to be a loyalist of the state's Governor, Alhaji Kashim Shema, may vote based on the governor's directive. The governor, who is now Chairman of the Northern Governors Forum, according to political pundits, will serve the interest of the president-elect, General Mahammudu Buhari, whose political body language allegedly supports Lawan's candidancy. However, report says Buhari has resisted pressure to endorse any candidate for Senate President. Verdict: Saraki, 1; Lawan, 0; 1 undecided Adamawa: Former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is the political leader of the state and he is believed to be working in tandem with Asiwaju Tinubu, who is also alleged to be sponsoring Senator Lawan. Binta Masi Garba, the female senator representing Adamawa North has already endorsed Bukola Saraki, leaving Ahmadu Abubakar (South) and Abdul Aziz Murtala Nyako (Adamawa Central), who may vote for Lawan. However, Atiku remains Saraki's political leader way back their PDP days, when Saraki was Special Adviser on Budget Monitoring to Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, hence; observers believe despite their political differences, the former VP may swing the pendulum in Saraki's favour. Verdict: Saraki 1; 2 Undecided North West Katsina: This is the home state of the President-elect, Buhari who is the political leader of the state. Buhari over times has denied supporting any aspirant, but it is believed that his body language favours Senator Lawan. However, Senator Umaru Kurfi (Katsina Central), Mustapha Bukar (North) and Abu Ibrahim (South), all elected on the platform of the APC may vote in Lawan's favour because of the Buhari's alleged interest. Also, the governor-elect, Bello Masari is a die-hard supporter of Buhari, hence, he will adopt any candidate Buhari supports. Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan 3 Kaduna: Aside Kastina State, where Buhari hails from; Kaduna State is his base where he commands large followers. Over the years, he controls, dictates and dominates the political landscape of the state. With his alleged interest in Lawan's candidacy, he may influence votes of the senators in Lawan's favour. However, with Senator Shehu Sani (APC Kaduna Central) being one of the Senators who openly endorsed Saraki, it means Saraki has got one vote out of three from the state. The other APC Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi (APC North) may be influenced by Buhari, while Danjuma La'ah (PDP South) may go either way. Verdict: Saraki, 1; Lawan, 1; 1 undecided Kano: Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, who is a senator-elect, is a long- time friend of Senator Saraki and being the leader of the state, is expected to woo other two Senators, Barau Jibrin (APC Kano North) and Kabiru Gaya (APC South) to his camp. Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 Sokoto: The state like Kano State, based on the existing relationship between Governor Aliyu Wamakko, who is also a senator-elect (APC Sokoto North); the Speakership of the House of Representatives, Hon Aminu Tambuwal, who is also the governor-elect of the state, and Senator Saraki, the former, is expected to coast all three votes from the state. The two other senators are; Ibrahim Gobir (APC Central) and Ibrahim Abdullahi (APC South). Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan 0 Zamfara: Senator Ahmed Rufai Yerima, who represents Zamfara West Senatorial District is the leader of the state. Sani, who is a two-term governor is a die-hard loyalist of Buhari and may direct the other two APC senators, Kabir Garba Marafa (Central) and Tijjani Yahaya Kaura (North), to vote in favour of Lawan. Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan 3 Kebbi: The state like Zamfara, is controlled by Senator Adamu Aliero (Kebbi Central) and Aliero, a two-term governor and minister, is perceived as a core Buhari's loyalist and may give all the state's three votes to Lawan. Other senators from the state are Yahaya Abdullahi (North) and Bala Ibn Na'allah (South). Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan 3 Jigawa: The state, which was carved out from the old Kano State, over the years, had remained on the same page with the state and may go the way of Governor Rabiu Kwankawso in supporting Senator Saraki in his bid to rule the senate. The three senators from the state are: Muhammad Shitu (APC Jigawa N/East), Abubakar Gumel (Jigawa N/West) and Sabo Mohammed (Jigawa S/West). Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan 0 North Central Kwara State: Senator Bukola Saraki (Kwara Central), a leading contender for seat of Senate Presidency, will absolutely get three votes from his state, where he remains indisputable political leader. Senators from the state are all APC members including; himself, Senator Shaába Lafiagi (Kwara North) and Rafiu Ibrahim (Kwara South). Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan 0 Kogi: Senator Bukola Saraki is also expected to enjoy support of all the three APC Senators from Kogi State. They are; Abdulsalami Ohiare (Kogi Central), Abdulrahman Abubakar (Kogi East) and Dino Melaye (Kogi West). Saraki enjoys good support and loyalty from former governor, Abubakar Audu, who is the leader of APC in Kogi State. Also, Melaye has been at the forefront of campaign for Saraki's bid. Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan 0 Benue State: This is a no-go-area for Senator Bukola Saraki as it would be very hard, if not impossible for him to secure a vote from the state. Reason: Senator George Akume had backed Lawan's ambition. Akume is being tipped for Deputy Senate Presidency. Akume as the leader of APC in Benue enjoys Barnabas Gemade (also APC's) support. Also, the incumbent Senate President, David Mark, who was elected under PDP is reportedly backing Lawan, hence, Lawan has chances of getting the maximum three votes from Benue. Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan 3 Nassawara: Considering former governor Abdullahi Adamu's long time relationship with Senator Bukola Saraki, the latter may get two APC Senators (Adamu and Salihu Hussain Egye, Nasarawa South), while the only PDP man, Philip Aruwa Gyunka (Nasarawa North) may adopt Lawan, as he is invariably being backed by David Mark. On the other way, if General Muhammad Buhari, whose body language is believed to be favouring Lawan wades in, Governor Al-Makura, who had enjoyed long relationship with Buhari under the defunct CPC, may adopt Buhari's candidate by prevailing on his two APC senators in favour of Lawan. Verdict: Saraki, 2; Lawan 1 Niger: Senator Bukola Saraki is also believed to have enjoyed much political influence in Niger state. He played major role in the Senatorial bye-election in the Niger North held last year where Aliyu Sabi Abdullahi was able to get his mandate via legal process. Also, Saraki's influence as a major and respected leader of APC from the North Central may pave way for him. Those Senators are; David Umaru (Niger East APC), Aliyu Sabi Abdullahi (Niger North APC) and Mustapha Sani from Niger South APC. Verdict: Saraki 3; Lawan 0 Plateau: By political party affiliation and strong loyalty Senator David Mark enjoyed in Plateau, getting a vote from Plateau state by Saraki would be a hard nut to crack. All the three senators are members of PDP. They are Jeremiah Useni (Plateau South PDP), Joshua Dariye (Plateau Central PDP) and Jonah Jang, Plateau North PDP. Verdict: Saraki 0; Lawan 3 South West Lagos State: All three APC Senators ordinarily would vote Lawan, who is enjoying the strong support of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the emerging political leader of South West. Oluremi, his wife; Olugbenga Ashafa and Adeola Olamilekan will always bow to Tinubu's directive, which they will rarely go against. Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan 3 Ogun State: Arguably, Ogun State is Tinubu's political empire and the two APC Senators, Olanrewaju Tejuoso (Ogun Central, APC) and Gbolahan Dada, Ogun West APC, will adopt Lawan, who is Tinubu's man. However, Buruji Kashamu from Ogun East PDP is expected to back Saraki, considering the fact that he does not enjoy good relationship with Tinubu and certainly will not queue behind him. Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan 3 Ondo State: Like Lagos, the trio of Tayo Alasoadura (Ondo Central, APC); Ajayi Boroffice (Ondo North APC) and Yele Omogunwa (Ondo South APC), will always adopt Tinubu's candidate, scoring Saraki zero vote in Ondo State. Verdict: Saraki, 0: Lawan 3 Osun State: Likewise, Osun is an extension of Tinubu's political dynasty. Olusola Adeyeye (Osun Central APC), Babajide Omoworare (Osun East APC) and Isiaka Adeleke (Osun West APC), will always do Tinubu's bidding. Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan 3 Oyo State: Ditto for Oyo State, Monsurat Sunmonu (Oyo Central APC), Buhari Abdulfatai (Oyo North APC) and Adesoji Akanbi (Oyo South APC), who are brought on board by Governor Abiola Ajimobi, loyalist of Tinubu, will support Lawan, who is riding on the former Lagos Governor's political influence. Recall that APC Senators-elect caucus had adopted Lawan as their candidate for Senate President, a development considered as doing Tinubu's bidding. Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan 3 Ekiti State: Going by the long time relationship Senator Bukola Saraki has with Governor Ayodele Fayose, all the votes of the three PDP Senators may be for Saraki. They are; Fatimat Raji-Rasaki (Ekiti Central PDP), Duro Faseyi (Ekiti North PDP) and Biodun Olujimi (Ekiti South PDP). Fayose is also a close ally of Senator Gbemisola Saraki, who had dumped PDP for APC at the eve of the Presidential election held on March 28. It's an undisputable fact that the three senators were nominees of Fayose, hence, he enjoys their loyalty. To his credit, Saraki may be sure of all three votes from Ekiti State. Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan 0 South-South Delta: Up till this day, and years after leaving the PDP, Saraki has been able to maintain a very cordial relationship with most of his former lieutenants while he was chairman of the once powerful Governors' Forum. Saraki, after crossing to APC attended a book launch on the personality of Governor Uduaghan. Apart from that, the Ibori structure, which is still very strong in Delta politics and even brought in the governor-elect, is said to favour Saraki more than Senators Ahmed Lawan or George Akume and will expectedly propel the three PDP senators, Peter Nwaboshi (North), James Manager (South) and Chief Ighoyota Amori (Central) to cast their votes for Saraki. Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 Akwa-Ibom: Out of the three senators that will vote from Akwa-Ibom, Senator Bukola Saraki is expected to make three all over three. Though the senators, Bassey Albert Akpan (A/Ibom North), Nelson Effiong (A/Ibom South) and the incumbent governor, who is now going to the senate, Godswill Akpabio (A/Ibom West) are all PDP, Bukola's far reaching inroads to this region considered as a PDP stronghold, is even more pronounced here. This is coupled with the fact that he has been able to re-established ties with the governor, who reportedly wields enormous power and said to have the ears of the other PDP senators. Akpabio reportedly attended a meeting of a caucus in the senate where Saraki's endorsement was ratified by Dino Malaye led group Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 Cross River: Also, Senator Saraki is expected to clear the three senators votes from Cross Rivers state just like in Akwa-Ibom. For one, the Akpabio's factor is also expected to swing the votes in Saraki's favour and the PDP sentiment for him will also come handy as most of the senators from the PDP, after losing the House leadership to APC still see Saraki as one they can trust. Both Gershom Bassey (PDP South), John Enoh (PDP Central) and Rose Oko (PDP North) are expected to give Saraki their votes. Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 Bayelsa: Although the three senators from Bayelsa are all PDP candidates, and the state is the hometown of the sitting president, that state cannot be said to be a total blackout for Saraki, especially as President Jonathan is reportedly not wielding the necessary influence to that effect. If Senator Emanuel Paulker (Central) and Ogola Foster (West) might not go for Saraki, same cannot be said of Ben Murray-Bruce (East), who is said to have cordial relationship with Saraki Verdict: Saraki, 1; Lawan, 2 Rivers: Senator Bukola Saraki is also expected to have all the three votes in Rivers state, though Governor Amaechi and the APC lost all the three senatorial seats to the PDP. With the influence of Governor Akpabio, who is the PDP Governors' Forum chairman, Saraki may be ‘home and dry’ despite the river that surrounds the city. George Sekibo (East), Olaka Nwogu S/East and Osinakachukwu Ideozu (West), may vote for Saraki. Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 Edo: Also, the Ebonyi factor may play out in Edo state, the other way round, with the three votes going to Saraki. The party chairman, John Odigie-Oyegun is a Saraki fan and was even at the forefront of the zoning arrangement to North Central to give Senator Saraki the chance, and will definitely do more than that if the issue comes to voting. Senators here are Clifford Ordia (PDP Central), Francis Alimikhena (APC North) and Matthew Urhoghide (PDP South) Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 South-East Anambra: With senators like Andy Uba (south) in the saddle, Saraki is expected to clear the three votes from Anambra state. Andy Uba was among the senators that reportedly endorsed Saraki during the meeting that was chaired by Dino Malaye recently in Abuja and will expectedly swing the votes of the remaining two senators in Uche Ekwunife (Central) and Stella Oduah (North) even though they are all PDP. Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 Imo: Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo state has reportedly been a longtime ally of Saraki and even led the APC governors recently to President-Elect, Muhammadu Buhari where they reportedly favour the zoning of the senate president to the north central, though the party has since denied it. Now with the looming issue of voting for the most popular candidate, Okorocha will expectedly try to influence the three PDP senators to vote for Saraki as he has done with the state during the governorship election for them not to further lose out of the politics of the region. The senators are Samuel Anyanwu (East), Achonu Nneji (North) and Uzodinma Goodhope (West) Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 Enugu: Senator Saraki should have a walk-over in Enugu state for a number of factors. The deputy senate president, Ike Ekweremadu (West), who has reportedly worked out a partnership with Saraki to be the deputy senate president in Saraki's senate presidency, will work for Saraki to ensure the partnership works. Also, there is the Professor Gilbert Nnaji (East) factor, remember him, who was considered by the masses as one of the best Jonathan's minister when he was drafted to the power sector with very significant improvement until he was kicked out by Jonathan. Now he is going into the senate and will probably take that sentiment along to support Saraki with the backing of Ekweremadu. The other is Utazi Chukwuka (North). Verdict: Saraki, 3; Lawan, 0 Abia: The Ekweremadu factor is still expected to swing the votes in Saraki's favour here. Although Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe (South) may continue his allegiance with Senator Mark, hence Senator Ahmed Lawan. The other senators are Governor Theodore Orji (Central), Mao Ohuabunwa (North). Verdict: Saraki, 2; Lawan, 1 Ebonyi: Ebonyi may vote for Lawan through the influence of Senator David Mark with all the three votes in Ogba Joseph (Central) Samuel Egwu (North) and Sunday Oji (South), all PDP Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan, 3 FCT: With just one vote coming from the Federal Capital Territory, in Senator Phillips Ajudu, Senator Ahmed Lawan is expected to pick the solitary vote with ease considering the loyalty of the former to the current Senate President, David Mark. Verdict: Saraki, 0; Lawan, 1